Earthquake Risk To Jaitapur Nuclear Power Plant (Prof Roger Bilham)

Video-Beschreibung von SatyenBordoloi – 12.01.2012

Greenpeace brought noted geologist Professor Dr. Roger Bilham of the University of Colarado, who has published a paper in Current Science, a reputed science journal, on earthquake risk in Jaitapur. His paper indicates that a high magnitude earthquake cannot be ruled out in Jaitapur. Here he explains why.

While briefing the audience, Dr. Bilham said, „Since Jaitapur lies in the same compressional stress regime that has been responsible for generating both the Mw=6.3 Latur and the Mw=6.4 Koyna earthquakes in the past five decades it can be argued that a similar sized could possibly occur directly beneath the power plant. The probability of this earthquake occurring is low but it is nevertheless possible, and is an important consideration in the design of a safe power plant.“

He added that it was not possible to confidently say that an earthquake of a high magnitude would not occur in Jaitpur as one needs to examine reliable data spanning many centuries in order to do so. This is due to the long gaps between earthquakes. With regard to Jaitapur, the available data that can be relied upon only extends to last 200 years — a small time in geological history“.

The Jaitapur area comes under Ratnagiri district which falls in the seismic zone 4 (High damage) category with zone 5 being the highest (2). The area has witnessed 92 earthquakes within 1985 to 2005 (3).

You can download his paper here: Historical and future seismicity near Jaitapur, India.pdf

More information on the event:

This is a recording of a press conference held at the press club in Mumbai on the 12th of Jan.